Week 6 is stacked with big names, and most of the attention is going to Tuscaloosa and Dallas. That's fine. While everybody else is locked in on the headliners, our simulations keep flagging a handful of favorites that look a lot more vulnerable than their prices suggest.

Here's where GameSim smells an upset this weekend.

LSU at Kentucky

This is the biggest disagreement on the board, and it isn't close. LSU is a 10 point road favorite at -395, with Kentucky getting +310. That price gives the Wildcats about a 1 in 4 shot.

Our sims flip it completely. Kentucky wins 89.3% of simulations and averages a 39.1 to 20.5 win. Lexington at night has been a problem for visiting teams lately, and the model thinks LSU is walking into a buzzsaw. Even if you think the sims are a little too high on the Cats, +310 leaves a lot of room. Full breakdown: LSU at Kentucky prediction.

Minnesota at Purdue

Minnesota is a small road favorite at -130, laying 2.5, and Purdue sits at +110. The market sees a toss up with a slight Gopher lean.

GameSim doesn't see a toss up at all. Purdue wins 83.6% of runs, with a projected score of 34.0 to 23.4. Getting plus money on a home team the model likes this much is about as clean as an upset pick gets. Take a look at the Minnesota at Purdue prediction.

James Madison at Georgia Southern

JMU is laying 8.5 on the road at -360, with Georgia Southern at +285. Saturday night in Statesboro could get interesting.

The Eagles win 66.4% of our simulations, and the average score is Georgia Southern 26.3, JMU 22.3. The market has Georgia Southern closer to 26%, so there's a big gap between the model and the price. If you like Group of Five chaos on a Saturday night, this is your game. Details here: James Madison at Georgia Southern prediction.

UCF at Oklahoma State

Oklahoma State is coming off a bye and is close to a double digit favorite at home, laying around 9.5. The Cowboys' offense has been rolling lately, so it's easy to see why.

The sims just don't see a blowout. UCF wins 53.6% of runs, with a projected score of 29.9 to 28.9. When you're getting more than a touchdown with a team the model actually favors, that's worth a hard look before kickoff. Full sim results: UCF at Oklahoma State prediction.

South Carolina at Florida

Florida is still the sim favorite here, so this one is a value play rather than a full flip. The Gators are laying 14 at -625, and South Carolina is out at +455.

The Gamecocks win 42.1% of our simulations, and the average score is only Florida 36.3, South Carolina 33.3. The price implies something closer to 18%. A 3 point projected game with a two touchdown spread is a gap worth noticing. See the South Carolina at Florida prediction.

Quick hitters

  • Texas vs. Oklahoma: Texas is the pick in Dallas, but Oklahoma at +260 wins 36.4% of our runs. In a projected 21.2 to 17.4 slugfest, one turnover changes everything.
  • Tennessee at Arkansas: Tennessee is laying 13.5 at -575. Arkansas wins 28.6% of sims, well above the roughly 19% the price implies.
  • Georgia at Alabama: Not an upset pick, but worth mentioning. The market has this as basically a pick'em with Alabama at -115. Our sims have Alabama winning 80.7% of the time, 37.4 to 28.3. If you want the favorite this weekend, this is the one the model trusts most.

For every game on the Week 6 slate, check out the full college football predictions board. Detailed projected player stats for all games are available exclusively to GameSim+ subscribers. Learn more and subscribe here.