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Saturday, September 7, 2026, marks a thrilling day for college football fans as the SMU Mustangs travel to Tallahassee to face the formidable Florida State Seminoles. With a forecasted scoreline of 35.8 to 25.2 in favor of Florida State, the Seminoles come in as the favorites, holding a 65% win probability according to our model, which ran 440 simulations.
Ashton Daniels of Florida State is poised to steal the show with an impressive predicted performance of 292.4 passing yards and 2.5 touchdowns. His ability to dissect defenses could prove pivotal, especially against an SMU team that is hungry to make a statement.
On the other side, SMU's Kevin Jennings is no slouch, expected to put up 257.6 passing yards along with 2.2 touchdowns. Jennings' arm will be crucial if the Mustangs hope to keep pace with the high-octane Seminole offense.
Florida State's rushing attack adds another layer of complexity for SMU's defense. Ousmane Kromah and Quintrevion Wisner are projected to combine for over 142 rushing yards. With Kromah averaging 76.5 yards and Wisner chipping in 65.5 yards, the Seminoles have the means to control the game tempo.
For SMU, the running game may not be as dominant, but Kendrick Raphael and Dramekco Green will look to exploit any cracks in the Florida State defense. Raphael’s projected 50 yards might not seem game-changing, but in tight moments, every yard counts.
Despite Florida State's stronghold, the Vegas spread is surprisingly narrow at 2.5 points. This reflects a belief that SMU could keep it closer than expected, making for a tantalizing matchup. The over/under sits at 52.5, hinting at a potentially high-scoring affair.
This game offers more than just a battle of tactics and talent; it's a clash of narratives. Florida State is looking to solidify its standing as a playoff contender, while SMU aims to prove its mettle on a national stage.
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